Publications

Guyana’s economy continued to grow in 2016, but at a slower rate than in the previous year. In 2016, there was a slowdown in agricultural production, reflecting adverse weather conditions as well as stagnant agricultural commodity prices. The slowdown in the agricultural sector also affected performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, delays in public investment remained a drag on construction. These delays partly reflect deliberations by the administration to take stock of all existing public sector projects, as well as to set new priorities. As in previous years, GDP growth for 2016 largely stemmed from strong gold output from new mines, with total real GDP increasing by 3.3 percent (Table 1).

Published Date: August 2017
Authors: M. DaCosta, K. Dublin, and S. Williams

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the analysis of the Caribbean’s growth performance by setting out a framework for benchmarking indicators of key micro drivers and related structural policies that help explain differentials in productivity and real GDP per capita across the region, and relative to non-regional benchmark countries. The framework is adapted from the OECD’s Going for Growth exercises. Its emphasis on micro-drivers in the labor market and the business environment aims to help shift the focus of the current discussions on growth from macroeconomic considerations (e.g. fiscal sustainability, exports) toward an exploration of productivity, which the literature identifies as the principal constraint to growth in the Caribbean and elsewhere. Potential advantages of a benchmarking-for-growth framework include knowledge sharing of the policies and performance indicators related to productivity in the Caribbean and appropriate benchmark countries. This could help stimulate further research and public discussion on the underlying factors behind the divergence in incomes as well as on the policies and environments that contribute to those differentials. An initial exercise highlights issues with restrictions for starting a business, the tax burden, the cost of imports and infrastructure deficiencies as potential barriers to growth.

Published Date: September 2013
Keywords: policy, benchmarking, productivity, growth, framework.
Author: Melgarejo, Karl Alexander; D’Acosta, Michael; Mercer-Blackman, Valerie

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Abstract

Until recently, most of the focus of analysis of Caribbean economies has been on weak fiscal performance, high debt burdens, and the need for reforms aimed at sharpening the capacity of the region to compete in the global economy. Financial sector risks were seen as benign, with assessments pointing to generally robust indicators and adequate regulatory frameworks. This analytical framework was upturned by the failures of the Stanford Financial Group, CL Financial, and others. The size and extent of the failures raise concerns about the current models of analysis and policymaking, including the hitherto almost single-minded focus on fiscal policy at the expense of financial stability. At the same time, the episodes provide an opportunity to re-assess the policy frameworks and set out elements of a revamped approach that incorporates (i) closer linkages between fiscal policy and financial sector regulation; (ii) a re-assessment of existing approaches to financial sector supervision and the work of regulatory agencies; and (iii) greater transparency about the cost and burden-sharing of financial failures. This paper sets out some initial proposals relating to such an approach.

Published Date: November 2012
Keywords: Financial failures, Macroeconomic policy, Caribbean.
Author: Michael DaCosta, Kari Grenade, Tracy Polius

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Introduction

This paper presents the results of updating the data set for quota calculations through 2005. The updated data set would provide the basis for the next round of discussions on quota and voice reforms. The paper also revisits the issue of data adjustments. Consideration of a broader range of specifications for a new quota formula is left for the next paper on quota and voice reforms being issued concurrently.

Published Date:  July 2007
Prepared by: The Finance Department In consultation with other departments
Approved by: Michael G. Kuhn
Author: Williams, S., Metzgen, Y., Basset, S., Treichel, H., La Rock, R., Shuster, T.

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Abstract

The countries that were once British colonies in the Caribbean share a common language and a colonial history of slavery, dominance of a plantation-based sugar industry, and broadly similar government and administrative traditions. Following independence in the late-1960s economic strategies and performance across the region diverged. However, by the end of the 1980s, in the face of economic collapse Guyana had abandoned its strategy of “cooperative socialism”, and its economic policies converged with those generally supported by the IMF and World Bank. Despite this policy convergence and shared colonial origins, economic performance and social indicators in Guyana and Barbados have continued to diverge. The paper explores some of the origins of this divergence, and, in particular, the deep seated factors that derive from the countries’ history, geography, and demographics. In Guyana, while the focus on sound macroeconomic policies and donor support has been important, the most pressing requirement for sustained progress is to strengthen domestic institutions and build consensus on the country’s future direction.

Published Date: November 2012
Keywords: Caribbean, Guyana, Barbados, Institutions, Economic History
Author: Michael DaCosta

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Introduction

This paper examines financial risk in the Fund and the level of precautionary balances. At the 2002 review of the Fund’s policy on precautionary balances, Executive Directors supported a doubling of the target for precautionary balances to some SDR 10 billion, and the maintenance of the present system of accumulating these balances. Also at that time, the Board called for a further review to determine whether a more analytical approach for assessing the appropriate level of precautionary balances in the General Resources Account could be formulated. The rationale for holding precautionary balances and for assessing their adequacy depends heavily on the Fund’s risk containment policies and characteristics of the Fund’s exposure. Thus, the decision taken by the Board in 2002 on the target for precautionary balances is examined in this broader context.

Published Date: February 2004
Prepared by: the Finance Department  (In consultation with other departments)
Approved by: Eduard Brau

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